My sister set me an email:
Below is a posting from a blogger I follow. I started following him when I got the sense that the real estate market was not going to hold. He's one of those intense workaholic brianiac types who has been working as a money manager. He's done well for himself predicting the collapse of the stock market but this recent posting took it to a whole new level. He is NOT a survivalist. He is a money guy.
Here is the blog entry in it's entirety.
The End of the World . . . As We Knew It
For the last four and a half years, I have been writing, speaking and warning about the consequences of the housing bubble, commercial real estate bubble and the toxic paper that fueled both bubbles. I took a lot of heat for my comments.
I was not shy when I said we were headed for the worst Recession since the Depression. I was not shy when I then began referring to the coming tsunami as a Decession . . . and then in January of 2008, I took the next step and called it what it is . . . a Depression.
Deep VIOLENT Depression - I cannot emphasize this enough . . . and I have already taken heat for using the "V" word. But today I am prepared to kick it up a notch, and urge you to prepare for what is unfolding. Did we think we would have seen the extent of the violence during the Civil War, when we killed each other on our own land? Did we ever think we would have seen the violence that came out of the Depression? Hitler came to power when people lost hope in the government and financial markets. Can it happen again? We said it could never happen then, so now that we are in far worse shape than 1930, why couldn’t something much worse come out of this crisis?
100,000 Protesters - Does the government have any idea how angry people are, how betrayed they feel? It will be years before our economy recovers from the devastation wreaked by bankers. In the meantime, the possibility of something awful happening is very real. We’re one swing of a garda baton, one cracked head, away from chaos. - Gene Kerrigan
This statement could have been written about the United States, England, France, China or just about any country in the world. But for now, it comes straight from The Irish Independent. You didn’t see it on CNN, CNBC or even in any of the American papers. You had better prepare for it, because it will shut down banks, supermarkets and the very fabric of what we are. If you have not built up a food pantry, stored cash and gold, and armed yourself, you might want to consider doing it now.
White House Vegetable Garden - Tom Vilsack, our Secretary of Agriculture, proposed just that. He wants to call it "The People’s Garden," and he wants to establish community gardens at each of the department’s offices around the world. Why? It’s probably not because things are going well. It’s actually in response to a grassroots movement that has been rumbling about the need for us to grow our own food! By the way, vegetable seed sales at Burpee, Gurneys, Park Seed, etc. have been skyrocketing.
How To Avert Disaster - That was the title of a subhead in an article appearing in The Economist. The title was . . . The Bill That Could Break Up Europe. And the article dealt with ways of "stopping the rot" and "the meltdown of the EU." Let me note, there were no solutions and there was no mention of going after the men that created the problems . . . and clawing back the trillions of dollars they have stolen.
CIA Bracing for Global Economic Fallout - The CIA’s primary concern now is the security of the United States in terms of the global economic crisis and its geopolitical implications. Dennis Blair, Obama’s "intelligence czar," told his staff that concerns about the recession were now at the top of his annual worldwide threat assessment to Congress. Leon Panetta, our comical CIA directors, just announced that the CIA was now producing a secret daily bulletin, called the Economic Intelligence Brief.
Hitler Only Won 2.6% of the Vote - In 1929 Hitler was still considered a joke, and he only won 2.6% of the vote and 12 seats in the Reichstag. But just a year later, as the Depression took on steam, Hitler’s Nazi Party won 107 seats in the Reichstag. At that point Hitler’s only promises were to restore prosperity and jobs . . . and to purge the system of profiteers. I am NOT analogizing Obama to Hitler, but I am analogizing the promises of prosperity without paying the consequences for our past action or planning for the future.
Frank and Moose - After the previous paragraph, I think we need this quote. "There are names floating around, and they’re bad. Frank was one of them. Frank! Moose was another one." - Michelle Obama on her veto of the names her daughters suggested for the hypothetical family dog.
Bankruptcy for Vallejo, Phoenix, Dallas, Philadelphia - Vallejo, California has already submitted to bankruptcy. Phoenix is facing a $250M deficit. Dallas $100M. Philadelphia $300M. And New York could be facing a $900M-1.2T deficit next year. Ask yourself this question. If they are facing these deficits now, how bad does it get as tax receipts plunge due to the crushing unemployment numbers? And then ask what happens when receipts plunge, but services to the unemployed in the form of police, fire, medical, food, schools, etc. . . . skyrocket out of control? Instead of going to the doctor, the unemployed/uninsured will go to Emergency Rooms. Instead of going to the grocery store, the unemployed will go to food banks and soup kitchens . . . or worse, they will loot grocery stores. And that, my dear friends, is just the beginning of something too dark to write about.
Banks Rationing Withdrawals - It happened last week in the Ukraine, when banks not only limited withdrawals, but closed their doors altogether. But it can’t happen here, right? Wrong.
$2 Trillion to AIG - We’ve already given them $180 billion with a big B. We received an 80% stake in the company for the first $85B, but we got zippity-doo-da for the next $95B. Moreover, we have no idea what they did with the money, but I hear Goldman Sachs got billions of it from AIG, as well as JP Morgan and other banks that seem to understand the rules on sucking cash out of the system and pumping to guys like King Henry, Lord Blankfein and Prince Jamie. But the real kicker is what AIG is not telling us. As the financial crisis deepens, so does the money AIG needs to pay out. My low estimate is $2T. Unfortunately, if we continue to allow things to melt down, AIG will be on the hook for more than $5T. Strike that. WE, the taxpayers, will be on the hook for $5 trillion . . . or more.
Chinese and Saudi Ties - Last week Chas Freeman was appointed to head the National Intelligence Council. This is a guy that not only has some very strange ties to the Chinese and Saudi’s, but he still has family members and close friends on the payrolls of these countries. If not directly, indirectly. But really now, what’s the difference. Here’s a guy that worked for companies owned by the People’s Republic of China that was investing in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Even though Republicans asked for an investigation into Freeman’s ties to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, China and Iran . . . the Obama Administration ignored the warning signals. As if this was not enough, Freeman has been a supporter of how Hamas has handled things, while denouncing Israel for protecting herself. If you think Obama to the Rescue . . . you’d better start looking at the people he is surrounding himself with.
Obama’s Making It Worse - Maria Bartiromo interviewed Jim Rogers, and when she asked, "What do you think of the government’s response to the economic crisis?" he said . . . "Terrible. They’re making it worse. It’s pretty embarrassing for President Obama, who doesn’t seem to have a clue what’s going on - which would make sense from his background."
Jim classically continued . . . "And he had hired people who are part of the problem. Geithner was head of the New York Fed, which was supposedly in charge of Wall Street and the banks more than anybody else. And as you remember, Summers helped bail out Long Term Capital Management years ago. These are people who think the solution si to save their friends on Wall street rather than to save 300 million Americans.
I will close with this quote from Jim Rogers . . . "We’re going to have social unrest in much of the world. America won’t be immune.
Here is my response to my sister:
Hey guys – I love this kind of discussion because it brings us out of our very subjective experience and gives some emphasis to a larger view of what happens around us, without putting us in the position of having to figure out a solution. I have to say that we are certainly at a very interesting place in time right now, where many people are in a situation or environment that they never imagined or worse yet can see something happening that they have no control over, and it’s coming at them like a freight train. I imagine that must be somewhat excruciating right? Seeing your life unravel slowly around you with no way to stop it? I feel for those folks mostly because they have no plan b and never even considered they would need one. The thing that really makes me want to scream echoes what Anne said – the godawful parasites, opportunists and neophytes who use this kind of cultural crisis to promote their own agenda or even willingly take advantage of those who cannot or do not know how to cope. It is truly human behavior at its rock-bottom worst.
I have been seeing a lot of what this guy in his blog is speaking of here (yes even in the financially insulated bubble of SF). At least 6 of my favorite coffee shops and/or corner stores have closed for good, along with all the circuit city’s, most of the blockbusters, and even SF’s famed, Tiki-themed Tonga Room at the Fairmont Hotel looks like it is headed for memory lane. Jaretta and I started to take note of these places at first, but it became a little too depressing. I am not too sad to see the corporate chains go down but at the same time I know that means jobs. Here is a link that reminds me of pictures from one of my favorite depression era photographers, Dorothea Lange (cited in the article) except now the pictures are in color and they are from Sacramento.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1159677/Pictured-The-credit-crunch-tent-city-returned-haunt-America.html
The article mentions that this was shown on Oprah, but I tend to think that somehow marginalizes the issue, kind of giving it that 30 second soundbite authentication; meaning it grabs your attention and then it’s gone – so it goes through your TV screen, so it goes through your consciousness. On that note I also understand what Anne says about the self perpetuation of the bad news. Jaretta gets kind of annoyed at me when I have the computer open to the NYtimes online on my lap while watching the local news. She doesn’t want to hear it, doesn’t think any of it is relevant to what our current subjective daily lives are about. I almost agree, because in working with the SF public schools I have come to realize that almost every policy made to address public or private issues is most often driven by the fear of liability; it’s the damn insurance companies and the lawyers who run this show.
The article written by Mike Morgan is something I have been reading in one form or another for many months now. Each prediction becomes scarily more true, and I do see how many intelligent people are giving credence to the idea that we, as a nation and a culture, are about to go through a sea-change. I think I stand on the side that thinks “I have seen, have lived through times as bad as those growing up. If change is due let it come, you can either shriek and run or think and plumb.” What really stood out the most was one of the comments left on Mike’s blogger page (I am a total sucker for comments) – basically it was a response to another comment where someone claimed Mike was just putting fuel on the fire of fear :
“Cook at home, not go out to eat. Invite the neighbors over for a meal, or several. (You DO know who your neighbors are, don't you?) Build community. Prepare to assist each other, because there won't be much assistance forthcoming from those who have brought us to this point. So, fearmongering? That is literally selling fear. There is no need to sell or buy fear, as there is plenty to go around for free.”
I totally loved that. There is plenty of fear to go around right now, and you can have a slice if you want to, if it shakes you out of your complacency and gets the juices flowing. Just don’t let it influence your decision making process.
My gut says that more people are about to experience a standard of life - a quality of living, that they never imagined they would be visiting in another country; much less living. It says that lots are going to be fearful and impractical and take advantage of whatever opportunities come up, unethical or not. I see many people I know and work with who are basically decent folks, but have been living in a delusion world of false entitlement - entitlement partially shaped by our culture in America and the imagined zeitgeist of unsustainable consumerism. I think there have been many people who have been calling for real and determined change for many decades in this arena, and it now may be happening because there is no place left to go. I hope that the people who speculated unfairly, who knowingly made poor choices or coerced others into them, finally realize that folly and learn. One thing I do agree with in the article (and it just makes common sense if you live in the fault zone out west) stock up on water and seeds and whatever else you might not be able to get if the power goes out.
On a side note; my years of trolling the interwebs have jaded me and I am calling myself out right now. Any of you ever heard of ‘Godwin’s Law”?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin%27s_law
As soon as I read the word Hitler in the article I stopped taking it seriously, that’s because I have been a part of way too many interweb flame wars, meme-outs, and thread bumpings. That is not to say the guy has some seriously good points, but as far as my experience goes when you start throwing around the ‘H’ word you’ve just invalidated all your previous points intelligent or not.
I love you all very much and I hope my ramblings haven’t put you to sleep, but if so, have a nice nap.
Dave